The Associated Press ran a story today about the proposed NEA/AFT merger in which it noted that "The outcome is uncertain." This sign that conventional wisdom has caught up with EIA's reporting compels me to predict flatly that merger will not achieve the necessary two-thirds majority at the NEA Representative Assembly in New Orleans on July 5. In fact, there is an outside chance it will not achieve a simple majority. 

This, despite the fact that the California Teachers Association's State Council voted to support the Principles of Unity on Saturday by an estimated 2 to 1 margin. The vote was especially significant because a large number of State Council reps are also delegates to the NEA RA. California sends approximately 10.6 percent of the total number of delegates. As expected, the large locals (some of which are already dual-affiliated) supported the merger, while the smaller, rural locals opposed it. But with one-third opposition in California, large majority opposition in New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois and Massachusetts, and split delegations in Pennsylvania and Ohio, merger needs a miracle. 

NEA's official line has been that the state assembly voters are different than the RA voters. This is true, but anecdotal evidence indicates this fact is not to the advantage of the pro-merger side. The opposition to merger in pro- merger states (New York, Missouri and Georgia, for example) is far more prominent than the support for merger in listed anti-merger states. Here are the latest totals: 

• Pro-merger — California, Wisconsin, Washington, Florida, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Montana, Mississippi, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Wyoming. TOTAL = 32.3%

• Anti-merger — New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois, Massachusetts, Virginia, Indiana, Iowa, Connecticut, West Virginia, New Hampshire. TOTAL = 29.6%

• No position — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, Maryland, Kentucky, Colorado, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, Utah, Alaska, Delaware, Vermont, South Dakota. TOTAL = 33.0%

• Unknown — Maine, Louisiana, Arkansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, Idaho, North Dakota. TOTAL = 5.1%.

NEA must do something dramatic to pass merger. Will it reverse its own pronouncements and throw the Principles of Unity open to amendments from the floor? Will it postpone the vote until next year? And what happens if NEA does persuade delegates from anti-merger states to defy their state affiliate's recommendation? Once the NEA delegates vote, their role in the matter is finished. Chase will then have to rely on those same state assemblies that voted to oppose merger to acquiesce in its implementation. Will they do so? Or will they disaffiliate? 

Don't expect the California Teachers Association to jump on the peer review bandwagon anytime soon. The union's recent survey of members showed only 12 percent wanted the union to "greatly increase its efforts on behalf of peer review." 

Lost in the post-mortems of the California campaign was the results of this CNN/Los Angeles Times exit poll question: "Labor unions have..." 

Michigan enacted a modified "paycheck protection" initiative after a long legal battle. Before it was implemented, each of the Michigan Education Association's 140,000+ members contributed to the union's political action committee. The most recent figures show MEA-PAC membership at 30,815 — a decline of over 78 percent. 

The Pennsylvania State Education Association has reportedly uncovered a $2.3 million "shortfall" while developing next year's budget. PSEA Executive Director Carolyn Dumaresq implemented a temporary hold on external hiring "until a clearer direction has crystallized." Dumaresq implied that targeted budget cuts will be necessary. PSEA collected $35.6 million in dues last year, an increase of 7.2 percent from 1996. Meanwhile, the Michigan Education Association is running ahead of budget schedule, but with significant overspending on some line items. These include: staff training; the travel budget of MEA's various policy committees; and the "coalitions" budget (for coordination with the Council Against Parochaid, the Michigan Tax Information Council and the League of Women Voters). 

The largest overspend went to "political education." With 58.3 percent of the budget year elapsed, MEA has already spent 184.5 percent of its political education budget. 

A Kentucky grand jury is investigating a $10,000 donation made by NEA PAC to the A. Philip Randolph Institute during the 1995 gubernatorial race. The institute mounted a get-out-the-vote drive in Louisville, allegedly to ensure the victory of Democrat Paul Patton. According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, the grand jury is focusing on whether Patton's campaign colluded with the AFL-CIO, Teamsters, the Democratic Party and the institute to exceed campaign spending limits. A number of officials of the NEA's state affiliate have testified. 

Quote of the Week: "One of the things that is evident from the campaign against Proposition 226 is that there exists a vast and well-funded national network of organizations that are coordinating a campaign to undermine public education and other parts of our social fabric." — NEA President Bob Chase. Chase went on to name the National Taxpayers Union, the Citizens for a Sound Economy, the Claremont Institute, and the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, apparently so you would know to which side he was referring. 

EIA's two 1998 reports — One Yard Below and Piles of Wealth — are available via U.S. Mail at no charge. Contact EIA at the numbers below or write EIA at PO Box 2047, Carmichael CA 95609.