Arnold Schwarzenegger recently scheduled his first fund-raiser and joint appearance on behalf of Bill Simon’s campaign for governor of California.  While this is certainly welcome for Simon, it is also a necessary move for the actor’s advancing foray into big-time politics.

For Simon, the event guarantees favorable press, campaign cash and just a little touch of star quality.  But for the one-time bodybuilder, flexing his partisan muscles could be crucial to his future ambitions.

California Republicans are swooning at the prospect of a superstar carrying their banner sometime in the future.  The possibility is especially enticing when one considers the sad state of the GOP here, and many consider Schwarzenegger the answer to apparent Republican voting gaps with women, minorities and young people.

This is a heavy burden to place on even the broadest of shoulders, but celebrity can generate a special kind of political mania, with even a movie star’s prospective candidacy for lower office conjuring up images of the presidential oath of office being administered on the steps of the U.S. Capitol.

Thus, some California Republicans place themselves in an odd position:  projecting Schwarzenegger to a standing he has yet to attain (but may in the future), while providing less than total support to the top of the ticket.  This can only weaken the party they hope Schwarzenegger will one day lead.

This is not to say the action star has been idle this season.  He’s barnstormed the state for Proposition 49, a ballot initiative he’s sponsoring that would allocate up to $550 million annually from the state budget to “provide additional funding for state grants to bring an after school program to all 6,600 public elementary, middle and junior high schools in California that choose to offer one” according to the campaign’s website.

Despite the Weekly Standard calling this “Muscular Republicanism”, most conservatives would probably prefer “the soft and supple arms of the welfare state.”  You say more than one million kids between ages five and 14 have no one to come home to after school?  Can any school-based program reverse the social forces that created this condition?

A majority of the state’s voters will probably give it a try, and this will be Schwarzenegger’s successful foray into elected politics.  But what kind of majority will he have fashioned?  In a recent poll, 51 percent said they supported the measure – with Democrats outnumbering Republicans 3 to 1.  Is this proof of Arnold’s flabby right flank?  Or pumped-up left wing?

In any event, Schwarzenegger won’t have to sweat too much to win over California conservatives.  His most skeptical critics will be Democrats – many of whom support his social spending initiative.

Recall 2001, when Schwarzenegger considered challenging Democrat Gov. Gray Davis.  In response, Davis’ political consultant circulated clippings from the National Enquirer about Schwarzenegger’s alleged marital infidelities.  Despite their tabloid origin, these stories soon appeared in mainstream media, and Schwarzenegger eventually declined the race.  He says convincingly that the stories (which he denies) did not impact his decision.

But almost without exception, the same press corps that’s amenable to Schwarzenegger’s candidacy today was complicit in smearing of his name last year.  This reveals an inherent truth: Celebrity Republicans can be viewed as decent people – until they hint at challenging dominant Democrats.  After that, it’s open season.

Schwarzenegger should expect more of the same.  The most prominent opponent of his Proposition 49 is the League of Women Voters of California, less a feminist group than an adjunct of the Democratic Party.  A liberal special interest rarely opposes more money for schools in the name of kids unless a Republican is doing the giving – and stands to gain from the association.

Pundits have surmised that Schwarzenegger’s politically shrewd team stiff-armed Simon, figuring Davis a safe bet for re-election.  Regardless, for someone who admires Ronald Reagan, he stands to gain much from following the Gipper’s example during the waning days of this campaign season.

Reagan made his name in politics by virtue of his “Time For Choosing” speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater’s 1964 presidential campaign.  That Goldwater went on to lose 44 states and even Reagan’s native California by more than one million votes didn’t tarnish Reagan’s future – it enabled it.

If the Running Man lends his stock to Simon’s run for governor, he’ll gain regardless of outcome:  credit if Simon wins; appreciation should he lose.  Either way, his Republican future will be determined more by credible party label than ballot proposition.

If Schwarzenegger decides to enter the arena, he won’t need to warn partisan Democrats who support his initiative, “I’ll be back.”  They’ll be waiting.

Jonathan Wilcox is a communications consultant and former speechwriter for Bill Simon and Pete Wilson.  His e-mail address is jwilcox1967@earthlink.net 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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